Finance · Open for opinions
Will the aggregate monthly trading volume in prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket) exceed $500 billion by December 2026?
Trading volume in prediction markets doubled between May and July 2026, driven by the FIFA World Cup. 57 opinions, 81% No
- Yes — 19%
- No — 81%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 57 opinions
Resolution rules
Trading volume in prediction markets doubled between May and July 2026, driven by the FIFA World Cup. Sports trading alone exceeded $58 billion on Kalshi and nearly $22 billion on Polymarket in June and July. Without the World Cup catalyst, reaching $500 billion...
Source: www.pewresearch.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o volume mensal combinado de Kalshi e Polymarket atingir ou superar US$ 500 bilhões em qualquer mês até dezembro de 2026, conforme dados publicados por agregadores como defirate.com ou relatórios oficiais das próprias plataformas.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 81% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 19 points, a wrong one costs about 81.