Finance · Open for opinions
Will global trading volume in prediction markets reach $1 trillion by the end of 2026?
Projection by Reuters Breakingviews analysts (Sep/2026) indicates an accelerated growth trajectory, with projected volume at ~$977… 38 opinions, 63% No
- Yes — 37%
- No — 63%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 38 opinions
Resolution rules
Projection by Reuters Breakingviews analysts (Sep/2026) indicates an accelerated growth trajectory, with projected volume at ~$977 billion for 2026, close to the $1 trillion mark.
Source: www.reuters.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatório da Reuters, Bloomberg ou publicação setorial consolidada indicar que o volume total anual de mercados de previsão (Kalshi, Polymarket e similares somados) atingiu ou superou US$ 1 trilhão em 2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 63% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 37 points, a wrong one costs about 63.