Politics · Open for opinions
Will Kalshi or Polymarket restrict or suspend political markets related to the 2026 US midterm elections before November 2026?
Recent analyses point to a possible 'Republican problem' in prediction markets on the eve of the midterm elections, with questions… 21 opinions, 52% No
- Yes — 48%
- No — 52%
Deadline: November 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 21 opinions
Resolution rules
Recent analyses point to a possible 'Republican problem' in prediction markets on the eve of the midterm elections, with questions about bias and regulatory pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Source: nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se ao menos uma das plataformas (Kalshi ou Polymarket) anunciar publicamente, em comunicado oficial ou blog, a restrição ou suspensão de categorias de mercados ligadas às eleições de meio de mandato americanas de 2026 antes de 03/11/2026. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 52% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 48 points, a wrong one costs about 52.