Finance · Open for opinions
Will the total US prediction market volume exceed $200 billion cumulative by the end of 2026?
The sector went from under $5 billion to about $24 billion in less than a year, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the segment's… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The sector went from under $5 billion to about $24 billion in less than a year, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the segment's exponential growth.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatórios públicos da CFTC, das próprias plataformas ou de veículos financeiros de referência (Bloomberg, Reuters) confirmarem volume total agregado de plataformas reguladas e não reguladas operando nos EUA igual ou superior a US$ 200 bilhões até 31/12/2026. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.