World · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury yield exceed 5.5% before November 30, 2026?
By October 14, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield had already risen to 5.3%, after higher-than-expected inflation data hardened… 81 opinions, 56% No
- Yes — 44%
- No — 56%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 81 opinions
Resolution rules
By October 14, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield had already risen to 5.3%, after higher-than-expected inflation data hardened expectations for Fed rate hikes. The IMF also warned about rising borrowing costs for the US government.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o rendimento (yield) do US Treasury de 10 anos fechar em ou acima de 5,50% em qualquer sessão de negociação até 30 de novembro de 2026, conforme dados do Departamento do Tesouro americano (treasurydirect.gov) ou Bloomberg.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 56% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 44 points, a wrong one costs about 56.