Politics · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC issue new guidance or formal action against election prediction contracts by November 30, 2026?
Measures the US regulatory response following reports of scrutiny into election contracts. 81 opinions, 65% No
- Yes — 35%
- No — 65%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 81 opinions
Resolution rules
Measures the US regulatory response following reports of scrutiny into election contracts.
Source: bonus.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 17/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a Commodity Futures participação Commission (CFTC) publicar ordem, ação de execução ou regra restritiva formal sobre contratos de mercados preditivos políticos até 30/11/2026, verificável no site oficial cftc.gov ou no Federal Register. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.