Technology · Open for opinions
Which company will have the best AI model by the end of 2026?
Prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi indicate Anthropic with a 74% chance of being #1 by the end of… 70 opinions, 70% Anthropic (Claude)
- Anthropic (Claude) — 70%
- OpenAI (GPT) — 13%
- Google (Gemini) — 11%
- Other — 6%
Deadline: January 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 70 opinions
Resolution rules
Prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi indicate Anthropic with a 74% chance of being #1 by the end of 2026, followed by OpenAI with around 9.5%, according to an analysis published in September 2026.
Source: defirate.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve com base no ranking do Chatbot Arena (LMSYS) ou benchmark equivalente amplamente reconhecido publicado entre 1 e 15 de janeiro de 2027, considerando a posição de topo no período de dezembro de 2026. A empresa cujo modelo ocupar o 1º lugar geral nesse ranking vence.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Anthropic (Claude) has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.