Finance · Open for opinions
Will the global annual volume of prediction markets reach $1 trillion in 2026?
Reuters Breakingviews article from 09/18/2026 indicates an accelerated growth trajectory for prediction markets toward $1 trillion,… 38 opinions, 63% No
- Yes — 37%
- No — 63%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 38 opinions
Resolution rules
Reuters Breakingviews article from 09/18/2026 indicates an accelerated growth trajectory for prediction markets toward $1 trillion, with a projection close to $977 billion in the latest data.
Source: www.reuters.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se análise da Reuters Breakingviews ou fonte financeira equivalente (Bloomberg, WSJ, Financial Times) confirmar que o volume anual agregado dos principais mercados de previsão (Kalshi, Polymarket e similares) atingiu ou superou US$ 1 trilhão no ano calendário de 2026. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 63% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 37 points, a wrong one costs about 63.