Finance · Open for opinions
Will the combined trading volume in prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket) exceed $80 billion in 2026?
In 2024, the combined volume was about $9 billion; in 2025, it surpassed $40 billion. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
In 2024, the combined volume was about $9 billion; in 2025, it surpassed $40 billion. The sector is experiencing rapid growth in 2026, making the $80 billion mark a plausible reference for debate.
Source: www.linkedin.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o volume total anual combinado de Kalshi e Polymarket em 2026 superar US$ 80 bilhões, conforme dados oficiais publicados pelas próprias plataformas ou relatório consolidado de fonte especializada reconhecida (ex.: RotoWire, The Block, Dune Analytics). Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.