Politics · Open for opinions
What will be the outcome of the regulatory dispute between the 44 states and the US federal government over prediction markets by March 2027?
According to a report from 09/04/2026, federal authorities argue… 20 opinions, 25% Federal government (CFTC) prevails and maintains exclusive regulation
- Federal government (CFTC) prevails and maintains exclusive regulation — 25%
- States win the right to regulate platforms locally — 25%
- Hybrid agreement between federal and state levels — 25%
- No definitive resolution by March 2027 — 25%
Deadline: March 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
According to a report from 09/04/2026, federal authorities argue that states cannot regulate prediction markets, while attorneys general from 44 states contest this position. The clash will determine the future of multibillion-dollar platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in the US.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve com base em decisão judicial federal de instância superior, legislação promulgada ou acordo formal entre CFTC e estados publicado até 01/03/2027. Fonte: comunicados oficiais do Departamento de Justiça dos EUA, CFTC (cftc.gov) ou SCOTUSblog. Se nenhuma resolução formal for publicada, resolve como 'Sem resolução definitiva até março de 2027'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Federal government (CFTC) prevails and maintains exclusive regulation has 25% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 75 points, a wrong one costs about 25.