Technology · Open for opinions
Will the US government impose new export restrictions on frontier AI models (such as those from OpenAI or Anthropic) by December 31, 2026?
Advanced AI models from major US companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) are once again being treated as strategic technology… 70 opinions, 60% No
- Yes — 40%
- No — 60%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 70 opinions
Resolution rules
Advanced AI models from major US companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) are once again being treated as strategic technology between countries, signaling pressure for export controls similar to those applied to chips.
Source: www.instagram.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Departamento de Comércio dos EUA (BIS) publicar no Federal Register novas regras de controle de exportação que listem explicitamente modelos de IA de fronteira (large language models ou equivalentes) como itens controlados, com vigência até 31/12/2026. Fonte: Federal Register (federalregister.gov). Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 60% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 40 points, a wrong one costs about 60.