Science · Open for opinions
Will the five papers on primordial helium abundance published in The Astrophysical Journal in October 2026 be replicated by an independent scientific team by April 2027?
In October 2026, international scientists published five papers in The Astrophysical Journal measuring the abundance of helium formed… 81 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: April 20, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 81 opinions
Resolution rules
In October 2026, international scientists published five papers in The Astrophysical Journal measuring the abundance of helium formed in the first five minutes after the Big Bang with an uncertainty of just 0.5% — three times more precise than previous estimates — using the Large Binocular Telescope.
Source: www.sciencedaily.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução confirmada se um estudo de replicação independente (equipe diferente, telescópio ou metodologia distinta) for publicado em periódico revisado por pares (como The Astrophysical Journal, Nature Astronomy ou MNRAS) confirmando a medição de hélio primordial com incerteza igual ou menor que 0,5% até 2027-04-20. Fonte: NASA ADS ou portal do periódico.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.