Politics · Open for opinions
Will any G20 country government announce formal regulation specifically for prediction market platforms (such as Kalshi or Polymarket) by February 2027?
The explosive growth of Kalshi and Polymarket and attempts to ban them in multiple countries are increasing global regulatory pressure. 29 opinions, 59% No
- Yes — 41%
- No — 59%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 29 opinions
Resolution rules
The explosive growth of Kalshi and Polymarket and attempts to ban them in multiple countries are increasing global regulatory pressure. Data shows that restrictions end up amplifying interest in the platforms, creating a dilemma for regulators.
Source: markets.businessinsider.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se qualquer governo membro do G20 publicar legislação, decreto ou regulamentação formal direcionada especificamente a plataformas de mercados de previsão de eventos (prediction markets) até 28/02/2027, confirmado por fonte oficial governamental ou cobertura de Reuters/Bloomberg/AP. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 59% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 41 points, a wrong one costs about 59.