Science · Open for opinions
Will any peer-reviewed scientific study published by February 2027 confirm with statistical significance the presence of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) or another biomarker on exoplanet K2-18b?
The presence of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in K2-18b, a potential indicator of life, is controversial: an initial study suggested… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 20, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The presence of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in K2-18b, a potential indicator of life, is controversial: an initial study suggested detection, but a 2025 follow-up study led by NASA found no statistically significant evidence. New JWST observations may provide an answer.
Source: www.futura-sciences.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução com base em publicação em revista científica peer-reviewed (ex.: Nature, Science, The Astrophysical Journal) até 20/02/2027 que afirme detecção estatisticamente significativa (≥3-sigma) de DMS ou biomarcador equivalente no espectro atmosférico de K2-18b. Estudo de 2025 liderado pela NASA não encontrou evidências significativas; qualquer nova publicação contrária resolve como 'Sim'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.