Technology · Open for opinions
Will Meta publicly release an open-weights AI model with capabilities superior to GPT-4 by December 2026?
Mark Zuckerberg published a 6,500-word essay defending broad access to open AI models as essential for the future of the industry,… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Mark Zuckerberg published a 6,500-word essay defending broad access to open AI models as essential for the future of the industry, signaling Meta's aggressive strategy in open-source AI.
Source: www.instagram.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se a Meta disponibilizar publicamente (download de pesos abertos) um modelo de linguagem que supere o GPT-4 em pelo menos dois benchmarks acadêmicos padrão (ex.: MMLU, HumanEval), com anúncio oficial da empresa até 31/12/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.