Finance · Open for opinions
Will global monthly trading volume in prediction markets exceed US$30 billion by December 2026?
In August 2026, monthly trading volume in prediction markets reached US$24 billion, driven by the growth of Kalshi and Polymarket,… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
In August 2026, monthly trading volume in prediction markets reached US$24 billion, driven by the growth of Kalshi and Polymarket, which dominate the sector. Kalshi began allowing bets on oncology drug approvals.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se qualquer relatório público verificável (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance ou publicação oficial de Kalshi/Polymarket) confirmar que o volume mensal combinado de negociação nos principais mercados de previsão atingiu ou superou US$ 30 bilhões em qualquer mês até dezembro de 2026. Referência base: US$ 24 bilhões em agosto de 2026.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.