Politics · Open for opinions
Will the number of US states with laws banning prediction markets increase by the end of 2026?
In September 2026, twenty US states were in active litigation over the legality of prediction markets. 78 opinions, 59% Yes
- Yes — 59%
- No — 41%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 78 opinions
Resolution rules
In September 2026, twenty US states were in active litigation over the legality of prediction markets. At least one state has already made trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket illegal, with criminal penalties starting in August 2026.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se, até 31 de dezembro de 2026, ao menos um novo estado (além dos que já possuíam restrições em setembro de 2026) aprovar e promulgar legislação ou decisão judicial que classifique mercados de previsão como ilegais ou proibidos. Fonte de resolução: registros legislativos estaduais públicos ou cobertura do The New York Times/Reuters.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 59% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 41 points, a wrong one costs about 59.