Finance · Open for opinions
Will mandatory federal spending reach 98% or more of the total primary spending of the federal government by the end of 2026?
Recent data indicate that 96% of federal primary spending is already composed of mandatory expenses, with projections suggesting… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Recent data indicate that 96% of federal primary spending is already composed of mandatory expenses, with projections suggesting that the index could reach 100% between 2027 and 2028, leaving virtually no room for discretionary spending.
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Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Tesouro Nacional ou o Banco Central divulgarem dado oficial indicando que as despesas obrigatórias representam 98% ou mais do total do gasto primário do governo federal em qualquer mês entre agosto e dezembro de 2026. Fonte: Relatório de Avaliação de Receitas e Despesas Primárias (Tesouro Nacional) ou Nota de Política Fiscal (BCB).
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.