Finance · Open for opinions
Will the US annual PCE inflation rate exceed 4% in any month of the fourth quarter of 2026 (October, November, or December)?
PCE rose from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September 2026, higher than expected. 88 opinions, 63% No
- Yes — 38%
- No — 63%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 88 opinions
Resolution rules
PCE rose from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September 2026, higher than expected. Oil above $100/barrel and tensions in the Middle East (US-Israel vs. Iran war) continue to pressure consumer prices.
Source: www.pbs.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se o Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publicar leitura do índice PCE anual igual ou superior a 4,0% para qualquer um dos meses de outubro, novembro ou dezembro de 2026. Fonte oficial: comunicados do BEA em bea.gov.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 63% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 37 points, a wrong one costs about 63.