Finance · Open for opinions
Will the combined monthly trading volume of prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket) exceed $30 billion by December 2026?
In August 2026, prediction markets reached $24 billion in monthly trading, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for the vast… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
In August 2026, prediction markets reached $24 billion in monthly trading, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for the vast majority of volume. The sector has grown rapidly in recent years, driven by contracts on elections, Fed decisions, and now clinical trials of medi
Source: bipartisanpolicy.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução positiva se relatório público, comunicado oficial de qualquer das plataformas ou publicação de veículo financeiro de referência (Bloomberg, Reuters) registrar volume mensal combinado de Kalshi e Polymarket superior a US$ 30 bilhões em qualquer mês até dezembro de 2026. Fonte: relatórios das próprias plataformas ou cobertura jornalística com dado verificável.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.