Technology · Open for opinions
Which platform will have the higher reported trading volume in Q4 2026: Kalshi or Polymarket?
Kalshi and Polymarket are competing for leadership in prediction markets in the US; Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and has… 26 opinions, 62% Polymarket
- Kalshi — 31%
- Polymarket — 62%
- Technical tie (difference < 5%) — 8%
Deadline: February 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 26 opinions
Resolution rules
Kalshi and Polymarket are competing for leadership in prediction markets in the US; Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and has strong coverage of American sports and political events, while Polymarket leads in liquidity and global coverage.
Source: www.si.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução: comparação do volume total de negociações no período 01/10/2026–31/12/2026 com base em (a) dados da CFTC para Kalshi e (b) dados públicos do Dune Analytics (dune.com/rchen8/polymarket) para Polymarket. A plataforma com volume superior a 5% vence; se a diferença for menor que 5%, resolve 'Empate técnico'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Polymarket has 62% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 38 points, a wrong one costs about 62.