World · Open for opinions
Will the conflict between the US and Iran escalate into a large-scale direct military confrontation by December 31, 2026?
Trump called the conflict a 'little war' on 09/01/2026 (Bloomberg), but analysts and allies fear escalation. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Trump called the conflict a 'little war' on 09/01/2026 (Bloomberg), but analysts and allies fear escalation. Energy prices have already risen and there is global inflationary pressure.
Source: www.youtube.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o governo dos EUA ou o Congresso americano confirmar oficialmente operação militar de larga escala (não limitada a ataques pontuais já reportados) contra o Irã até 31/12/2026, com base em declaração da Casa Branca, Departamento de Defesa (defense.gov) ou resolução do Congresso. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.