Finance · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury bond yield exceed 6% per year by December 31, 2026?
The New York Times reported on 09/18/2026 that the conflict in Iran was the main trigger for the rise in US bond yields, forcing the… 39 opinions, 59% No
- Yes — 41%
- No — 59%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 39 opinions
Resolution rules
The New York Times reported on 09/18/2026 that the conflict in Iran was the main trigger for the rise in US bond yields, forcing the Fed to react. The combination of war in the Middle East and hawkish monetary policy puts upward pressure on long-term yields.
Source: www.nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se a taxa de fechamento do Treasury Note de 10 anos (US10Y) atingir ou superar 6,00% a.a. em qualquer dia útil até 31 de dezembro de 2026, conforme dados publicados pelo U.S. Department of the Treasury em treasury.gov. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 59% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 41 points, a wrong one costs about 59.