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Will the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fall below 46 points by November 2026?
The index fell to 46.3 in October 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and remaining near a historic low amidst the… 78 opinions, 53% No
- Yes — 47%
- No — 53%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 78 opinions
Resolution rules
The index fell to 46.3 in October 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and remaining near a historic low amidst the high cost of living, elevated inflation, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on the US economy.
Source: www.macon.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se qualquer leitura mensal do Índice de Sentimento do Consumidor da Universidade de Michigan (University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers) divulgada entre outubro e novembro de 2026 registrar valor inferior a 46,0 pontos. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'. Fonte: surveys.umich.edu.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 53% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 47 points, a wrong one costs about 53.