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What will the Federal Reserve interest rate (fed funds rate) be at the end of 2026?
With the Fed widely expected to hike 0.25 pp in September (from ≈3.6% to 3.85%), the debate is over… 36 opinions, 47% 3.85% (net hike of 0.25 pp in 2026)
- Below 3.6% (net cut in 2026) — 8%
- 3.6% (no net change in 2026) — 14%
- 3.85% (net hike of 0.25 pp in 2026) — 47%
- 4.1% or higher (net hike of 0.50 pp or more in 2026) — 31%
Deadline: January 5, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 36 opinions
Resolution rules
With the Fed widely expected to hike 0.25 pp in September (from ≈3.6% to 3.85%), the debate is over how many additional hikes will come by year-end, especially with inflationary pressure from the war with Iran and Trump's political resistance.
Source: www.pbs.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução com base na taxa-alvo dos fed funds divulgada pelo Federal Reserve após a última reunião do FOMC de 2026 (prevista para dezembro de 2026), disponível em federalreserve.gov. Considera-se o limite superior da faixa-alvo.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now 3.85% (net hike of 0.25 pp in 2026) has 47% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 53 points, a wrong one costs about 47.