Finance · Open for opinions
Will global prediction market volume reach $100 billion cumulative in 2026?
During the FIFA World Cup, Kalshi and Polymarket together reached approximately $50 billion in volume, representing 500x growth over… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
During the FIFA World Cup, Kalshi and Polymarket together reached approximately $50 billion in volume, representing 500x growth over the past two years, raising the possibility of reaching $100 billion for the full year.
Source: www.linkedin.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatório credenciado de veículo jornalístico ou financeiro reconhecido (Bloomberg, Reuters, The Block, CoinDesk) ou dados agregados das principais plataformas confirmarem volume global de mercados de previsão superior a US$ 100 bilhões no acumulado do ano civil de 2026 até 31/12/2026. Resolve como 'Não' caso contrário.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.