Finance · Open for opinions
Will Brazil's nominal deficit exceed 10% of GDP in the 12 months ending December 2026?
Central Bank data show that Brazil's nominal deficit averaged 8.6% of GDP between 2023 and 2025 and rose to 9.99% of GDP in the most… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Central Bank data show that Brazil's nominal deficit averaged 8.6% of GDP between 2023 and 2025 and rose to 9.99% of GDP in the most recent 12-month period, according to an InfoMoney report from August 2026.
Source: www.infomoney.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o Banco Central do Brasil divulgar, nas Notas de Política Fiscal, que o déficit nominal acumulado em 12 meses até dezembro de 2026 superar 10% do PIB. Resolve 'Não' caso contrário. Fonte: Banco Central do Brasil (bcb.gov.br), Notas de Política Fiscal.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.