Finance · Open for opinions
Will any U.S. state court manage to impose restrictions or operational suspension on Kalshi or Polymarket by December 31, 2026?
Lawsuits filed by attorneys general from 44 of the 50 U.S. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Lawsuits filed by attorneys general from 44 of the 50 U.S. states — both Republicans and Democrats — have been opened against prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a NYT report from 08/27/2026.
Source: www.nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se qualquer decisão judicial estadual transitada em julgado (ou liminar mantida em segunda instância) determinar suspensão total ou parcial das operações da Kalshi ou Polymarket em ao menos um estado dos EUA até 31/12/2026. Fonte: cobertura oficial dos tribunais estaduais e comunicados das empresas.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.