Technology · Open for opinions
Will the total cumulative volume of non-sports prediction markets exceed US$15 billion by December 31, 2026?
The volume of non-sports prediction markets recently reached US$10 billion, driven by the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket. 33 opinions, 58% No
- Yes — 42%
- No — 58%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 33 opinions
Resolution rules
The volume of non-sports prediction markets recently reached US$10 billion, driven by the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket. If the growth rate continues with political and regulatory events in the second half of the year, the US$15 billion mark may be reached.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução baseada em relatório público de agregadores de dados de mercados de previsão (ex.: Dune Analytics ou The Block) indicando volume total acumulado não-esportivo acima de US$ 15 bilhões no ano de 2026.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 58% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 42 points, a wrong one costs about 58.