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What will be the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate range at the end of 2026?
On 09/16/2026, the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% citing high inflation and an energy shock related to the Iran War. 37 opinions, 38% 4.00%–4.25%
- 3.75%–4.00% (no further hikes) — 24%
- 4.00%–4.25% — 38%
- 4.25%–4.50% — 24%
- Above 4.50% — 14%
Deadline: December 18, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 37 opinions
Resolution rules
On 09/16/2026, the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% citing high inflation and an energy shock related to the Iran War. It is the first hike since 2023.
Source: www.federalreserve.gov
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido pela faixa-alvo dos fed funds anunciada no comunicado do FOMC de dezembro de 2026, publicado em federalreserve.gov. A opção correspondente à faixa oficial declarada vence.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now 4.00%–4.25% has 38% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 62 points, a wrong one costs about 38.