Finance · Open for opinions
Will trading volume in election prediction markets (Kalshi and/or Polymarket) reach an all-time high during the 2026 midterm elections?
Fortune and OC Register (08/09/2026) report a surge in election trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with expectations of… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Fortune and OC Register (08/09/2026) report a surge in election trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with expectations of records in the 2026 midterms.
Source: fortune.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se Kalshi ou Polymarket divulgarem oficialmente (via comunicado, blog ou relatório público) que o volume total negociado em contratos eleitorais das midterms 2026 superou o recorde anterior registrado nas eleições presidenciais de 2024. Caso nenhuma das plataformas divulgue dado comparativo até 30/11/2026, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.