Finance · Open for opinions
What will be the Fed's decision at the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket data as of 09/18/2026 indicates a 54% probability of a 25 bps hike, 46% for no change, and 1% for a cut,… 39 opinions, 54% 25 bps hike
- 25 bps hike — 54%
- No change — 41%
- 25 bps cut — 5%
Deadline: November 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 39 opinions
Resolution rules
Polymarket data as of 09/18/2026 indicates a 54% probability of a 25 bps hike, 46% for no change, and 1% for a cut, reflecting market expectations in light of the US macroeconomic scenario.
Source: polymarket.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve conforme o comunicado oficial do Federal Reserve após a reunião do FOMC de outubro de 2026, disponível em federalreserve.gov.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now 25 bps hike has 54% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 46 points, a wrong one costs about 54.