Politics · Open for opinions
Will a US federal court stay election prediction contracts until October 31, 2026?
Consider decisions in court disputes regarding election derivatives between 10/08 and 10/31. 79 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider decisions in court disputes regarding election derivatives between 10/08 and 10/31.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 08/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se um tribunal federal dos EUA emitir ordem ou liminar suspendendo a oferta de contratos eleitorais em plataformas de previsão até 31/10/2026, conforme registros judiciais públicos ou Reuters/AP. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.