Finance · Open for opinions
Will the global volume of prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket combined) exceed $10 billion in 2026?
In 2024, Polymarket alone recorded about $4 billion in volume. 52 opinions, 56% No
- Yes — 44%
- No — 56%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 52 opinions
Resolution rules
In 2024, Polymarket alone recorded about $4 billion in volume. With the rapid growth of the sector and Kalshi's expansion, analysts project strong growth for 2025 and 2026.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatório oficial, comunicado das plataformas ou publicação de veículo financeiro reconhecido (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times) confirmar que a soma do volume anual de negociação de Kalshi e Polymarket em 2026 ultrapassou US$ 10 bilhões. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 56% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 44 points, a wrong one costs about 56.