Science · Open for opinions
Will the global average temperature for 2026 be at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO?
A review published in October 2026 by AGU demonstrates that decades of research confirm human influence on global warming, making… 79 opinions, 65% Yes
- Yes — 65%
- No — 35%
Deadline: March 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
A review published in October 2026 by AGU demonstrates that decades of research confirm human influence on global warming, making the monitoring of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold a key indicator to watch.
Source: news.agu.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se a Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM/WMO) publicar relatório anual confirmando que a anomalia de temperatura média global de 2026 atingiu ou superou +1,5°C em relação à média pré-industrial (1850–1900). Resolve 'Não' caso contrário. Fonte: relatório anual da WMO, previsto para janeiro/fevereiro de 2027.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.