Finance · Open for opinions
Will the total trading volume in prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket) exceed $40 billion by the end of 2026?
According to the Bulletin, the combined volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $24 billion in April 2026, up from $2 billion in… 37 opinions, 54% No
- Yes — 46%
- No — 54%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 37 opinions
Resolution rules
According to the Bulletin, the combined volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $24 billion in April 2026, up from $2 billion in August 2025, indicating explosive sector growth driven by CFTC regulation and the entry of US users.
Source: thebulletin.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o volume total acumulado de negociações combinado de Kalshi e Polymarket em 2026 superar US$ 40 bilhões, conforme reportado por veículos financeiros de referência (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ) ou relatórios oficiais das plataformas publicados até 31 de dezembro de 2026.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 54% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 46 points, a wrong one costs about 54.