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Will the US PCE inflation index fall below 3% year-over-year by December 2026?
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator showed a 3.7% increase over the last 12 months, well above the 2% target. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator showed a 3.7% increase over the last 12 months, well above the 2% target. Kevin Warsh stated in Jackson Hole that the battle against inflation still has 'a lot of work to do'.
Source: thehill.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base no relatório mensal do PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) divulgado pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov). Mercado resolve 'Sim' se a leitura acumulada em 12 meses do PCE divulgada referente a novembro ou dezembro de 2026 for inferior a 3,0%.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.