World · Open for opinions
Will the effective US tariff rate continue its downward trajectory in the second half of 2026?
After peaking at 11% in late 2025, effective US tariffs have been declining, with a more pronounced drop following the US Supreme… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
After peaking at 11% in late 2025, effective US tariffs have been declining, with a more pronounced drop following the US Supreme Court decision in February 2026. The future path of tariffs is key to global inflation and trade outlooks.
Source: www.stlouisfed.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o Federal Reserve de St. Louis (FRED, stlouisfed.org) ou o Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) reportar alíquota tarifária efetiva dos EUA igual ou inferior ao nível de junho de 2026 ao menos em dois dos meses de julho a dezembro de 2026. Resolve 'Não' se a alíquota retomar alta sustentada acima do pico de junho de 2026 no mesmo período.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.