Science · Open for opinions
Will the Arctic sea ice extent in October 2026 fall below the 2010–2020 average, according to NSIDC data?
A new study published in September 2026 revealed anomalous behavior in the Arctic melt season starting from 2010, suggesting changes… 61 opinions, 61% Yes
- Yes — 61%
- No — 39%
Deadline: November 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 61 opinions
Resolution rules
A new study published in September 2026 revealed anomalous behavior in the Arctic melt season starting from 2010, suggesting changes in ice dynamics that make it difficult to predict future extent based on previous historical trends.
Source: www.sciencedaily.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base nos dados mensais oficiais de extensão do gelo ártico publicados pelo National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) para outubro de 2026. Se o valor de outubro de 2026 for inferior à média mensal de outubro calculada para o período 2010–2020 pelo NSIDC, resolve 'Sim'. Caso contrário, 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 61% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 39 points, a wrong one costs about 61.