World · Open for opinions
Will China militarily invade Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket registers only a 4% probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting low market consensus on… 64 opinions, 95% No
- Yes — 5%
- No — 95%
Deadline: December 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 64 opinions
Resolution rules
Polymarket registers only a 4% probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting low market consensus on imminent military escalation.
Source: defirate.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução como 'Sim' se agências internacionais reconhecidas (Reuters, Associated Press ou BBC) confirmarem operação militar ofensiva da China contra território taiwanês até 31/12/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 95% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 5 points, a wrong one costs about 95.