Finance · Open for opinions
Will U.S. federal courts formally classify prediction markets as gambling by February 2027?
The New York Times and advocacy groups argue that prediction markets should be regulated as gambling. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The New York Times and advocacy groups argue that prediction markets should be regulated as gambling. An appeals court decision is pending, according to recent analysis.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se ao menos um tribunal federal dos EUA emitir decisão formal classificando plataformas de mercado de previsão (como Kalshi ou Polymarket) como apostas reguladas até 28/02/2027, conforme decisão publicada em bases oficiais (PACER ou comunicado da CFTC). Resolve 'Não' caso contrário.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.