World · Open for opinions
Will there be a CFTC or SEC enforcement action for insider trading in prediction markets by November 30, 2026?
Considers punitive measures and formal regulatory actions announced between 10/17 and 11/30. 81 opinions, 75% No
- Yes — 25%
- No — 75%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 81 opinions
Resolution rules
Considers punitive measures and formal regulatory actions announced between 10/17 and 11/30.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 17/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a CFTC ou a SEC anunciar formalmente processo civil, sanção ou ação de execução contra operadores por insider participação em contratos eleitorais até 30/11/2026, conforme divulgado em cftc.gov ou sec.gov. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 75% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 25 points, a wrong one costs about 75.