Politics · Open for opinions
Will the volume wagered on the 2026 US midterm elections exceed $300 million by November 30, 2026?
Consider the total financial volume traded in the electoral markets between 10/22 and 11/30 [2]. 85 opinions, 65% Yes
- Yes — 65%
- No — 35%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 85 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider the total financial volume traded in the electoral markets between 10/22 and 11/30 [2].
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 22/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Resolve como 'Sim' se o volume acumulado em mercados das eleições legislativas de 2026 nas plataformas Kalshi ou Polymarket ultrapassar US$ 300 milhões até 30/11/2026, conforme dados das plataformas ou do Brennan Center. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.