Finance · Open for opinions
How will a U.S. court officially classify the Kalshi and/or Polymarket platforms in a published decision by March 2027?
The debate between 'gambling' and 'financial instruments' has reached the courts and… 20 opinions, 25% Financial instruments regulated by the CFTC
- Financial instruments regulated by the CFTC — 25%
- Gambling/betting under state supervision — 25%
- Hybrid category with shared regulation — 25%
- No decision published by the deadline — 25%
Deadline: March 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The debate between 'gambling' and 'financial instruments' has reached the courts and American legal academia. The classification will determine which body regulates the sector and which rules platforms must follow.
Source: www.law.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução baseada na primeira decisão judicial federal ou estadual definitiva (não liminar) que classifique explicitamente a natureza jurídica das plataformas de mercado de previsão, conforme documentos públicos do tribunal ou CFTC até 31/03/2027.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Financial instruments regulated by the CFTC has 25% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 75 points, a wrong one costs about 25.