Politics · Open for opinions
Will the U.S. Congress pass any federal legislation regulating prediction market platforms (such as Kalshi and Polymarket) by December 31, 2026?
With legal proceedings in multiple states and growing political pressure — including Don Jr.'s public defense (an investor in Kalshi… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
With legal proceedings in multiple states and growing political pressure — including Don Jr.'s public defense (an investor in Kalshi and Polymarket) urging Republican AGs not to sue the platforms — the debate over federal regulation of prediction markets in the U.S. is at the center of the agenda.
Source: nymag.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o Congresso dos EUA aprovar e o presidente sancionar legislação federal específica que regule, licencie ou restrinja plataformas de prediction markets até 31/12/2026, conforme registro oficial no Congress.gov ou comunicado da Casa Branca. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.