Finance · Open for opinions
Will Kalshi maintain more than 90% of the total US prediction market volume during the fourth quarter of 2026 (October–December)?
According to recent data (September 2026), Kalshi captured 96% of the $10 billion traded in US prediction markets over the past… 36 opinions, 58% Yes
- Yes — 58%
- No — 42%
Deadline: January 20, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 36 opinions
Resolution rules
According to recent data (September 2026), Kalshi captured 96% of the $10 billion traded in US prediction markets over the past month, reversing a parity position with Polymarket in June and a Polymarket lead a year ago. Growth is attributed to regulatory and other factors.
Source: x.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se relatórios públicos de volume (ex.: dados divulgados pelas próprias plataformas ou cobertura jornalística verificável) mostrarem que a Kalshi deteve mais de 90% do volume agregado de contratos negociados nos EUA em cada mês de outubro, novembro e dezembro de 2026. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 58% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 42 points, a wrong one costs about 58.