Finance · Open for opinions
Will the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket exceed US$ 80 billion year-to-date in 2026?
In 2024, the combined volume was about US$ 9 billion; in 2025 it surpassed US$ 40 billion. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
In 2024, the combined volume was about US$ 9 billion; in 2025 it surpassed US$ 40 billion. With the acceleration observed in July 2026, analysts estimate that growth could bring the 2026 annual total to new records.
Source: www.linkedin.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatórios setoriais amplamente citados (ex.: The Block, Dune Analytics ou publicações oficiais das plataformas) confirmarem que o volume combinado de Kalshi e Polymarket no ano calendário de 2026 ultrapassou US$ 80 bilhões até 31/01/2027. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.