Finance · Open for opinions
Will the reputation of prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket) publicly recover after notorious errors in 2026 primary elections?
Kalshi and Polymarket assigned ~95% chance of victory to Francesca Hong on the eve of a primary, but David Crowley won by surprise,… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 14, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Kalshi and Polymarket assigned ~95% chance of victory to Francesca Hong on the eve of a primary, but David Crowley won by surprise, raising questions about the reliability of these platforms.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se pelo menos um estudo acadêmico ou relatório de instituição financeira de referência (ex: Fed, banco de investimento tier-1, universidade reconhecida) publicado até 28/02/2027 concluir que a acurácia agregada dos mercados de previsão em eleições de 2026 foi superior à de pesquisas eleitorais tradicionais. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.