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Will the US PCE inflation in October 2026 exceed 3.6% per year?
The PCE index, the Fed's main inflation barometer, accelerated from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September 2026, driven by gasoline… 89 opinions, 52% Yes
- Yes — 52%
- No — 48%
Deadline: December 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 89 opinions
Resolution rules
The PCE index, the Fed's main inflation barometer, accelerated from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September 2026, driven by gasoline prices and the conflict in the Middle East. The upward trend worries the Federal Reserve.
Source: www.pbs.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base no índice PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) divulgado pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) do Departamento de Comércio dos EUA referente ao mês de outubro de 2026. Se a variação anual superar 3,6%, resolve 'Sim'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 52% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 48 points, a wrong one costs about 52.