Technology · Open for opinions
Which platform will have the highest market share in US prediction markets in the fourth quarter of 2026?
Kalshi is federally regulated and leads in crypto distribution; Polymarket built the category and has the highest historical… 71 opinions, 45% Polymarket
- Kalshi — 39%
- Polymarket — 45%
- Technical tie (difference of less than 5%) — 15%
Deadline: January 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 71 opinions
Resolution rules
Kalshi is federally regulated and leads in crypto distribution; Polymarket built the category and has the highest historical volume. Both compete for users with promotions and market expansion.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve com base em relatórios públicos de volume de negociações divulgados pelas próprias plataformas ou por análise de veículos especializados (ex.: RotoWire, The Block) referentes ao período outubro-dezembro de 2026. Vence a plataforma com maior volume total acumulado no trimestre.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Polymarket has 45% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 55 points, a wrong one costs about 45.